How to Prepare for Severe Weather During a Very Strong (Super) El Niño: 9-Step Checklist
Severe weather does not always provide much time to react. A storm, wildfire, flood or extended power outage can affect roads, utilities and cellular networks with little warning.
Severe weather does not always provide much time to react. A storm, wildfire, flood or extended power outage can affect roads, utilities and cellular networks with little warning. The best time to make decisions about where to go, what to bring and how to stay in touch is before conditions begin to deteriorate.
To prepare for severe weather during severe weather, know your local hazards, make a shelter and evacuation plan, refresh emergency supplies, and set up backup power and communications. Follow local watches, warnings and evacuation orders for day-to-day decisions, because El Niño changes the odds of certain weather patterns but does not guarantee a specific emergency where you live.
For 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center states that “El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year.” Its July discussion gives an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October to December 2026. Preparedness is more useful than trying to predict a single storm month in advance.
Review the nine steps below before conditions deteriorate, especially if you live in or travel through flood-, hurricane- or wildfire-prone areas. The National Weather Service says about 15 cm (6 in) of fast-moving floodwater can carry an adult human, and about 30 cm (12 in) can float a small car.
What is an El Niño?
El Niño occurs when unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific shifts weather patterns around the world. A very strong, or "Super," El Niño is the strongest tier, with sea surface temperatures reaching 2°C or more above average, something that has happened only a handful of times since 1950.
A strong El Niño is not one enormous storm, and it does not guarantee extreme weather where you live. Instead, it changes the likelihood of different hazards depending on the region and season. Some communities may face heavier rainfall and flooding, while others experience drier conditions that can contribute to wildfire risk. Local forecasts, watches, warnings and evacuation instructions should always guide your decisions.
How El Niño Can Shift Severe Weather Risk
El Niño occurs when unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific shifts large-scale weather patterns. A very strong event can tilt seasonal odds more substantially, but it is not one enormous storm and it does not guarantee extreme weather in a particular place. Use seasonal outlooks for long-range planning, then rely on local forecasts, watches, warnings and evacuation instructions for immediate decisions.
Flooding
In the United States, NOAA’s July 2026 long-lead outlook says El Niño-related precipitation patterns are expected to become more pronounced through fall and winter. For August through October, parts of Southern California, Nevada, Utah and western Arizona reach 40% to 50% chances of above-normal precipitation. By winter 2026-27, above-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier, with the highest probabilities in parts of the Southeast.
These are seasonal probabilities, not storm forecasts. A flash flood can still develop quickly and locally, so broader outlooks should never replace real-time alerts, road closures or evacuation instructions.
Floodwater can be far more powerful than it appears. The National Weather Service says about 15 cm (6 in) of fast-moving water can knock an adult off their feet, while about 30 cm (12 in) can float or carry away a small car. Never walk, swim or drive through floodwater, even when it looks shallow.
Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
El Niño can also influence tropical cyclone activity, but its effects vary by ocean basin. In the Atlantic, stronger upper-level winds can make it harder for hurricanes to organize and strengthen. That does not remove the risk to coastal communities or travellers.
A single hurricane or tropical storm can still bring storm surge, destructive winds, inland flooding, unsafe roads, lengthy power outages and communications disruptions. Preparedness should not depend on whether a season is labelled active or quiet. If you live in or travel through a hurricane-prone region, review your evacuation zone, identify more than one route and follow local authorities as a storm approaches.
In parts of the Pacific, El Niño can support increased tropical cyclone activity or shift where storms form and travel. Wherever you are, seasonal outlooks should support long-term planning, while local watches, warnings and evacuation orders determine what you do next.
Wildfire
El Niño does not make every region wetter. In some areas, warmer or drier conditions can increase wildfire risk, especially when they combine with dry vegetation, heat and wind.
Wildfires can spread quickly, change direction and disrupt far more than the immediate burn area. Smoke can reduce visibility and air quality, roads may close, evacuation routes can become congested, and cellular or electrical infrastructure may be damaged. Monitor local fire conditions, know where you would go and leave early when authorities issue an evacuation order.
9-Step Severe Weather Preparedness Checklist
This checklist reflects core preparedness guidance from authorities such as FEMA and the National Weather Service. Use it before severe weather is in the forecast, adapting each step to the hazards in your area, your household’s specific needs and the places you travel.
- Know which hazards are most likely in your area
Start with local emergency management and weather authorities. Understand whether your area is most exposed to hurricanes, wildfires, floods, winter storms, extreme heat or another hazard, then learn what local watches, warnings and evacuation notices mean. - Make a shelter and evacuation plan
Decide where you would shelter, where you would go if you had to leave and which routes you would use. Choose an alternate route in case roads are closed and identify a nearby meeting point as well as one outside your neighbourhood.
Write the plan down and make sure everyone knows where to find it. - Build or refresh your emergency kit
Keep water, non-perishable food, medications, first aid supplies, flashlights, batteries, hygiene items, copies of important documents, cash, local maps and weather-appropriate clothing somewhere easy to access.
Your kit should reflect the people and animals in your household. Add pet supplies, mobility or medical equipment, infant supplies and anything else your family could not safely go without.
For a more detailed emergency supply list, FEMA’s Ready.gov provides a comprehensive checklist of recommended supplies for households, vehicles and workplaces. - Create a communication plan
Choose an out-of-area contact who can help household members reconnect if local networks are overloaded. Keep important numbers on your phone and on paper, then agree on when and how everyone will check in.
For trips or fieldwork, share your route, expected return time and the point at which someone should escalate if they cannot reach you. - Prepare for cellular and internet disruptions
Cellular networks may be congested, damaged or unavailable during a major event. Identify more than one way to receive alerts and communicate, such as a weather radio, local broadcast station and a satellite-connected device.
Keep your backup method accessible. Equipment stored in a hard-to-reach place is less useful when you need to leave quickly. - Plan for power outages
Charge phones, satellite devices, radios and power banks before severe weather arrives. Keep compatible charging cables together and consider vehicle charging or another backup power source for longer outages.
Test generators, solar panels and other equipment in advance and follow the manufacturer’s safety instructions. - Complete a ZOLEO readiness check
Find your ZOLEO, fully charge it, and send a Check-In or test message with a clear view of the sky. Confirm the ZOLEO app is up to date and paired with your device, then review your Safety Circle to make sure the right people are still included, whether that’s family, friends, loved ones, travel partners, employers, safety managers, Global Rescue coordinators, or emergency response partners.
Review how your satellite device’s SOS system works. Only activate SOS during a genuine emergency. Confirm that your service is active before your next trip or before severe weather reaches your area. How does ZOLEO SOS Work? - Plan for individual needs
Consider how children, older adults, people with disabilities, anyone who relies on powered medical equipment and pets will be supported. Assign responsibilities and create backup arrangements in case the first plan cannot be followed. - Practice, review and replenish
Walk through your plan at least once or twice a year and whenever your household, travel routine or local risks change. Replace expired food and medications, recharge equipment and update contact information.
After an emergency or trip, restock your kit and recharge every device so you are ready for the next one.
You cannot predict exactly how the season will unfold. You can make sure your household has a plan, essential supplies, backup power and another way to communicate if conditions change.
Severe Weather Preparedness FAQ
What should I do first to prepare for severe weather during El Niño?
Start with the hazards most likely in your area and the official alerts that apply to them. Then make a shelter and evacuation plan, refresh your emergency kit, and set up backup power and communications before severe weather is in the forecast.
Does a very strong, or “Super,” El Niño guarantee extreme weather where I live?
No. El Niño shifts the likelihood of certain temperature and precipitation patterns across regions and seasons, but it does not guarantee a specific storm, flood or wildfire. Local forecasts and official warnings should determine what action you take.
How much floodwater is dangerous?
Very little. The National Weather Service says about 15 cm (6 in) of fast-moving water can knock an adult off their feet, and about 30 cm (12 in) can float or carry away a small car. Never enter floodwater on foot or by vehicle.
What should I check on my ZOLEO before severe weather?
Fully charge the device, confirm the ZOLEO app is updated and paired, send a check-in or test message from a clear view of the sky, verify your Safety Circle contacts, and confirm your service is active. Review how SOS works but only activate SOS during a genuine emergency.
Can ZOLEO replace an emergency plan or official alerts?
No. ZOLEO can support communication beyond cell coverage when used with an active service plan, but it does not replace official alerts, evacuation instructions, emergency supplies or good judgment.
Preparedness Is a System, Not a Single Product
No device can replace a complete emergency plan, official instructions or good judgment. ZOLEO supports the communication part of that plan by helping you stay connected and able to reach emergency assistance beyond cell coverage when used with an active service plan.
A five-minute ZOLEO readiness check today can prevent an outdated contact or inactive service from becoming a problem when conditions are already difficult.
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